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Selecting the optimal dose and trial design for Phase 3 can be challenging when clinical evidence is limited. In this case study, a pharmaceutical company developing a novel rheumatoid arthritis therapy partnered with Certara to apply model-based meta-analysis (MBMA) using Phase 2 and external clinical trial data. By integrating efficacy and safety data, accounting for key patient covariates, and simulating multiple Phase 3 scenarios, Certara helped identify the optimal development strategy before initiating a pivotal trial. The resulting evidence improved confidence in dose selection, informed competitive positioning, and reduced development risk while accurately predicting Phase 3 outcomes.

The challenge

A pharmaceutical company developing a new treatment for rheumatoid arthritis needed to determine the optimal dose and strategy for Phase 3 trials—based only on results from two randomized Phase 2 studies. ​

Key questions included:​

  • ​How does the new compound compare in efficacy and safety to existing and emerging treatments?​
  • What trial design would maximize success: superiority or non-inferiority?​
  • How should patient population characteristics influence development decisions?​

Certara support

Model-based meta-analysis (MBMA) for rheumatoid arthritis guided Phase 3 planning by:​

Integrating Data: Combined Phase 2 and external data from clinical trials for rheumatoid arthritis to build dose-response models for efficacy (ACR20/50/70) and safety.​

Adjusting for Covariates: Accounted for key factors like baseline CRP, methotrexate use, and geographic differences.​

Simulating Trials: Applied rheumatoid arthritis modeling to predict Phase 3 outcomes across different doses, sample sizes, and trial designs (superiority vs. non-inferiority).​

Evaluating Therapeutic Index: Assessed benefit-risk profiles across compounds to inform competitive positioning.​

The impact

  • Optimized Phase 3 Strategy: Informed dose selection and Phase 3 trial design, increasing likelihood of success.​
  • Competitive Insights: Clarified how the compound compares in efficacy and safety within its class.​​
  • Model Validation: Simulated outcomes closely matched actual Phase 3 results, boosting confidence in the approach.​
  • Efficient Decision-Making: Enabled data-driven progression to Phase 3, reducing uncertainty and resource risk.​

“MBMA provided clarity and confidence to design a successful Phase 3 trial—using only Phase 2 data and external evidence.”

Matt Zierhut, VP, MBMA Capability Lead, Certara

联系我们

Ready to reduce uncertainty in your next development program? Connect with Certara’s MBMA experts to learn how model-based meta-analysis can strengthen Phase 3 planning and accelerate confident decision-making.


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